Looking back at looking forward

Its that time of the year when we look back over the last year and then forward into the new one. So lets start by having a look back at my predictions for 2015 and see how I did.

Plymouth Citybus

• This year will finally see the swoops take over as the predominant livery in the fleet. This will be the result of both repaints and additions to the fleet.
  Kind of right in that there are more in swoops than anything else but a large proprtion of the fleet still carries older liveries. If you take the swoop and the flash schemes then they do account for morre than half the fleet now.
• As part of the above we will see the extinction of the “Best Impressions” dark red front livery from the fleet.
  Not quite - but not far off! 2 Darts, 2 B7RLEs, 4 Enviro 200s carry the scheme into the new year along with the last few double deckers which are in the process of being withdrawn so probably wont see much use into 2016.
• The 43/50 will be combined into one route as Gold Flash – or some other colour!
  Yep - in the end it was Yellow but that did happen
• Some new single decker's will join the fleet, probably Enviro 200s.
  Only just got this right as the brand new single deckers started to arrive a few days before Christmas to enter service in 2016!
• More second-hand buses will join the fleet, probably quite a bit newer than the London DD fleet brought in so far. There have been rumours of ex Brighton & Hove Scanias and Go Ahead London Enviro 200s, I am happy to wait and see! Yes, I think I can claim this one. Brighton did supply DDs but in the form of Dennis Tridents which are actually pretty decent buses. there were also a few Dennis Darts from London (no Enviros) which are 05 registrations, althought these have taken quite a while to arrive and even longer to see service.
• Routes. I don't see much expansion beyond the City over the current network, but it wont contract either. Citybus will remain in Tavistock and Torpoint.I think I can claim this one, just, in that the spread of operations remain pretty much the same. There has been some contraction in service levels but Citybus are indeed still in Tavistock and Ivybridge but have cut back on the main routes serving these areas.

Ex Brighton & Hove double deckers have proved quite popular
Now if I just leave it there then I am doing OK.

First Devon & Cornwall

• Repaints into standard First livery will slowly continue, possibly some additional branding for some services. First Plymouth name will be used more than First Devon.
  Well yes they did so that was right
• I don't expect any new buses so a continued trickle of Volvo single-deckers and one or two more Tridents will appear in Plymouth.
  I wasa right there as well
• There will finally be a new livery for Cornwall.
  Yep, although it wasnt what we were expecting / hoping for, although the idea of something more interesting is still on the cards for the future
• Minor tinkering with Plymouth bus routes. No major new routes introduced.
  Well I was right here too
• Tavistock – I believe (hope) that some sort of deal will be arranged to allow at least some later buses for Tavistock after the planned cutbacks.
  Late services do indeed continue on Tavistock route
• There will be increased competition in Cornwall with a slow move back into areas previously left to Greyhound.
  Well First have moved into areas that were Western Greyhound strongholds but not quite in the way I expected.

OK so it looks like First PLYMOUTH, but is actually operated by Stagecoach in this picture.
Although I can claim a few predictions above have come to pass, there is one big elephant in the room in that First are no longer here in Plymouth - I didnt predict that!

Western Greyhound

• Western Greyhound WILL still be around at year end, but will have contracted back and hopefully be more settled and able to run all its services. Couldnt have been more wrong sadly
• Further second-hand buses will join the fleet and eventually there will be a new livery for the fleet although it will be a slow process.
  Well there were quite a few second hand buses joining before it all came to a sudden halt.

Stagecoach

• The Plymouth presence will remain as it is now. The Gold fleet will grow slightly with more routes including one or two out of Exeter.Well Gold has grown with new routes out of Exeter but you may have noticed a slight increased presence in and around Plymouth!

Other Operators

• Target will loose some routes but will regain some others, ending up with slightly less work in and around Plymouth.
  Yep, although I dont think it is much less than it was
• Jacketts will also be slightly smaller in Plymouth but may pick up additional work elsewhere. Yep
  
• At least one independent bus operator in Devon will give up. (No I am not predicting who!). It could well be the Devon cut backs which bring this on.
  I dont think this has hapenned, or am I missing anyone?

Other Predictions

• Railways – lots of talk and no action on anything. Yep
• Plymouth airport – Nope.
  Yep
• The new Coach Station will be started and the council will finally make clear arrangements for coach parking on the outskirts of the City Centre. Yes and No. Work has indeed started on the new coach station but little has been heard from the council as to where coaches are exected to park in the meantime when Brestonside finally closes. (This story has moved on slightly since I typed this…)
• Not so much a prediction really, but major roadwork's will continue in the North of the City causing even more traffic congestion as major developments continue / start. With the Bircham Valley link road planned for next year and the on-going Marjon Link Road scheme and re-working of Derriford Roundabout all in the pipeline its going to be a fun few years!Well yes, Derriford development has continued with the new Marjon Link now up and running and more new plans in the piepline

Plymothian Transit

• PT will continue to post at least 4-5 posts a week. I hope to continue the longer more details posts that have been a recent feature with more maps and service details. Yes I have just about kept this work rate up and most posts are now quite a bit longer than they used to be. There have indeed been a lot more maps and photos featured this year
• The recent introduction of Cornwall Transit and Devon Transit has been popular and will continue. Yes - the weekly posts have continued and get good coverage with plenty of readers and comments being left with suggests its a popular move.
• I always say this, but I will get out and about a bit more this year and take more photographs. I will certainly get down into Cornwall for a few visits and hopefully into parts of Devon.
  I always say it and as usual I have failed again.No trips into Cornwall and only one trip to Kingsbridge in the whole year. Must do better!
• Plymothian Bus Services will continue to expand as a historical database of bus services in Devon & Cornwall.Yes. I have spent a lot of time working on this over the last year and now have much better coverage for more roiutes than ever before.

As you may have picked up above, I don't see this year as having any major surprises. With money for transport being increasingly tight I just don't think there is much appetite for increased competition among the big players. That's not to say that they wont take advantage of any opportunities to expand to fill in gaps left by others. 
I think the line “I dont see this year as having any major suprises” pretty much sums up where my predictions have failed - 2015 has seen some major changes with First selling their Devon operation to Stagecoach and Western Greyhound failing completely leaving much of Cornwall to a renewed First, who have alreasdy started to make massive improvements to their Cornish fleet.
The second half of my statement though has been born out as in Plymouth there is little appetite for serious competition. Stagecoach only took on a few Plymouth routes leaving other areas to Citybus, who in return have cut back in Tavistock and Mount Batten so they can concentrate on their services elsewhere.
OK so its a lot later than I planned but thats partly due to it being such a busy start to the year (and me forgetting that I had typed this post up a few weeks ago…)
Sometime in the next week or so I will be making my own predictions on what remains of this year… Feel free to add your own thoughts!

2015 will be like this (maybe)

Better late than never

I have finally managed to put together my prediction for what remains of 2015:

Plymouth Citybus

• This year will finally see the swoops take over as the predominant livery in the fleet. This will be the result of both repaints and additions to the fleet.
• As part of the above we will see the extinction of the “Best Impressions” dark red front livery from the fleet.
• The 43/50 will be combined into one route as Gold Flash – or some other colour!
• Some new single decker's will join the fleet, probably Enviro 200s.
• More second-hand buses will join the fleet, probably quite a bit newer than the London DD fleet brought in so far. There have been rumours of ex Brighton & Hove Scanias and Go Ahead London Enviro 200s, I am happy to wait and see!
• Routes. I don't see much expansion beyond the City over the current network, but it wont contract either. Citybus will remain in Tavistock and Torpoint.

First Devon & Cornwall

• Repaints into standard First livery will slowly continue, possibly some additional branding for some services. First Plymouth name will be used more than First Devon.
• I don't expect any new buses so a continued trickle of Volvo single-deckers and one or two more Tridents will appear in Plymouth.
• There will finally be a new livery for Cornwall.
• Minor tinkering with Plymouth bus routes. No major new routes introduced.
• Tavistock – I believe (hope) that some sort of deal will be arranged to allow at least some later buses for Tavistock after the planned cutbacks.
• There will be increased competition in Cornwall with a slow move back into areas previously left to Greyhound.

Western Greyhound

• Western Greyhound WILL still be around at year end, but will have contracted back and hopefully be more settled and able to run all its services.
• Further second-hand buses will join the fleet and eventually there will be a new livery for the fleet although it will be a slow process.

Stagecoach

• The Plymouth presence will remain as it is now. The Gold fleet will grow slightly with more routes including one or two out of Exeter.

Other Operators

• Target will loose some routes but will regain some others, ending up with slightly less work in and around Plymouth.
• Jacketts will also be slightly smaller in Plymouth but may pick up additional work elsewhere.
• At least one independent bus operator in Devon will give up. (No I am not predicting who!). It could well be the Devon cut backs which bring this on.

Other Predictions

• Railways – lots of talk and no action on anything.
• Plymouth airport – Nope.
• The new Coach Station will be started and the council will finally make clear arrangements for coach parking on the outskirts of the City Centre.
• Not so much a prediction really, but major roadwork's will continue in the North of the City causing even more traffic congestion as major developments continue / start. With the Bircham Valley link road planned for next year and the on-going Marjon Link Road scheme and re-working of Derriford Roundabout all in the pipeline its going to be a fun few years!

Plymothian Transit

• PT will continue to post at least 4-5 posts a week. I hope to continue the longer more details posts that have been a recent feature with more maps and service details.
• The recent introduction of Cornwall Transit and Devon Transit has been popular and will continue.
• I always say this, but I will get out and about a bit more this year and take more photographs. I will certainly get down into Cornwall for a few visits and hopefully into parts of Devon.
• Plymothian Bus Services will continue to expand as a historical database of bus services in Devon & Cornwall.

As you may have picked up above, I don't see this year as having any major surprises. With money for transport being increasingly tight I just don't think there is much appetite for increased competition among the big players. That's not to say that they wont take advantage of any opportunities to expand to fill in gaps left by others. 

As usual feel free to agree / disagree in the comments – and maybe even share your own predictions!

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A Backwards Look at the Future

Predictions 2014

Most transport blogs consider January to be the start of the year when they tend to look forward to see what the new year will bring. Well on Plymothian Transit I like to do things slightly differently, so just like last year, I leave it to the start of February for my customary look forward to 2015. But first things first - how did I do on 2014?

Plymouth Citybus

• Normal repaints will restart later this year and swoops will end up the predominant livery by the end of the year.
  Not a good start! It does seem that normal repaints have continued but with large gaps and Swoops is quite clearly not the predominant livery yet!(0.5 points)
• At least two more “Flash” routes will have started.
  Wrong! I could be pedantic and claim the joining of the 50 and 43 which did happen, but this is yet to become a proper Flash. (0 points)
• The main route network will continue to grow with more routes outside the City. Several new routes will be gained under tender in both Devon & Cornwall.
  Correct. (1 point)
• Like many others I see Citybus in Mount Batten sometime in the year.
  Like many others, I was wrong!. (0 point)
• Tavistock routes expanded, Torpoint possibly contracted.
  Tavistock work has expanded but Torpoint has not contracted. (0.5 points)
• Buses: More new double decker's, probably E400s later in the year.
  Nope! (0 points)
• More double decker's from Go Ahead London, possibly Wright bodied WVL class buses later in the year.
  Well we did get some more DDs from London, but they didn't stay and they were not WVLs!(0.5 points)
• As well as the Scania’s already coming I think we could see a few other single decker's joining the fleet from within the group.
  Nope! Again I could be pedantic and claim the WG Solos but I wont(0 points)
• The N reg batch of Dennis Darts will be withdrawn, along with a start on the R reg batch.
  Yes!(1 point)
• Citycoach: One or two second-hand from within the group.
  There was a brand new coach so I will claim a point for that

Score: Plymouth Citybus 4 out of 10

Photo credit: Tom Micheals under Creative Commons Licence.

First Devon & Cornwall

• First will still be around in Plymouth at the end of the year. Probably treading water with a few route changes along the way and rejigs to combat more expansion from Citybus.
  Yep!
• First Cornwall will be the next to get a Somerset style makeover with a similar non-corporate livery.
  Cant claim that yet. There are a couple of Solos in Somerset style livery but opinion seems divided if its the new livery or not.
• No new buses for Plymouth. Possibly more Tridents transferred in to see off the remaining Olympians.
  I get a point I think. We did get more Tridents in to Plymouth, We didnt get any new buses, but the Olympian still soldiers on, just
• First Devon will see a few more buses in the standard new First Group livery. Possibly PLYMOUTH branding in to replace DEVON?
  Yep!

Score: First 3 out of 4

Photo credit: Nick Rice under Creative Commons Licence.

Target Travel and Jacketts 

• Target will continue to contract loosing one or two routes under tender. Probably focus more on their coach work.
  Yep. Although we have seen an improvement in the bus fleet rather than the coach side.
• Jackett’s will gain more routes in Plymouth and South Devon. They will get their destinations working!
  I don't think I can claim this one. One or two buses have working destinations so it is better

Score: Target / Jacketts 1 out of 2

Western Greyhound

• I hope that WG will still be around as an independent operator by the end of 2014. Faced with First who clearly want to make a go of it in Cornwall, if not Devon and a county council who no longer want to pay for it there will be more cutbacks. If anyone does make an offer then I think its more likely to be Stagecoach than Go Ahead.
  I will claim this as a point as they are still around and they are still independent.
• Not much of a prediction as its already started, fleet replacement of the last Varios will step up. Quite a fleet of Darts and Tridents over the coming year.
  An easy point as yes, there were more Darts and Tridents coming in along with a few DAFs.
• Plymouth routes remaining pretty much the same.
  An interesting one this. The Plymouth routes themselves do indeed remain pretty much the same although they are not operated by WG anymore!

Score: WG 2 out of 3

Well the routes remain the same but now owned by Plymouth Citybus

Stagecoach

• I think there will be slightly more of a presence in Plymouth by Stagecoach this coming year. Not a major move into Plymouth itself though. Possibly the Dartmouth route 93 being taken over from First leaving them to concentrate in Plymouth
  Being pedantic again as the Gold service has increased in frequency so that is a slight increase. Dartmouth has lost its shine for Stagecoach so the 93 stay with First

Score: Stagecoach 0.5 out of 1!

Others

• Railway new routes – more talk, no action. Airport – nothing.
  Correct!
• First will retain the Great Western Franchise
  So its being extended rather than being awarded but it is still First although they have lost a few franchises recently
• Real time display – no change.
  Correct! It still does not work as promised and more often than not the displays are not working
• Bretonside – more talk and no action. Any action will be to develop the site rather than any attempt to replace the bus station.
  Wrong! We do now have plans, and the site is being cleared.
• Sherford Corridor – There will be plenty of talk about exciting new plans along this corridor. Councillors will speak of trams, monorails, trolley buses, guided bus ways and all sorts of exotic things. We will end up with a few extra bus lanes and maybe one or two stretches of bus-only roads.
  Its actually been fairly quiet on this but my prediction remains in place
• Park & Ride: The council will continue to complain and nothing much will happen. Maybe new fleet names / low level branding on existing buses to help market the services.
  Correct - to a point. There is a new livery to help show off the Park & Ride buses but there is no selling of the service at all on the buses that I can see.A few extra single decks have been brought in and one or two have been smartened up with the new livery but its still not uncommon to see very scruffy Barbie liveried buses on the two routes.

Score: Others 5 out of 6.
Overall score: 15.5 out of 30!

Plymothian Transit

Not so much a prediction, more of a hope than anything else. I will strive to post 4 – 5 times a week over the year but there are many things which can get in the way. A few of you will know that my son is having difficulties at the moment (I wont go into them here!) which has lead to a reduction in trips out. Hopefully things will settle later this year once he makes it into secondary school. He is top priority over anything I do for Plymothian Transit!
That said, it will continue and there will be other side projects along the way. Plymothian Bus Services is currently the main project which will  continue to be built up through the year.
The other thing I hope to expand upon is the interaction that the blog is getting these days. There are a lot more comments being left by a lot more people which is brilliant. The recent survey was really useful for me, and there will be a few others over the coming year, possibly shorter and more to the point than the last one.

Well 2014 was a pretty good year on the blog. I actually managed 227 posts in 2014 which is actually 4.3 posts per week as I had hoped for! More importantly from my point of view, is that the last couple of months has seen an increase in better, longer posts than has been the case for some time. Part of this is down to the simpler format which also allows for larger photos, but also me being a bit more organised. The on-going project Plymothian Bus Services has also helped as its becoming a much more useful resource as I plot the constant change in our local bus services. As I predicted things have indeed quietened down a little at home as Zak has become more settled in school so hopefully 2015 will see more trips out. A brand new camera last year will also help!

Of course the next stage is to make predictions for 2015. These will follow within the week…

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Plymothian Transit Predicts

I know its a lot later than usual but seeing as nothing much has happened in January I think its still worth trying to predict what we will see in and around Plymouth this coming year:

Plymouth Citybus

• Normal repaints will restart later this year and swoops will end up the predominant livery by the end of the year.
• At least two more “Flash” routes will have started.
• The main route network will continue to grow with more routes outside the City. Several new routes will be gained under tender in both Devon & Cornwall.
• Like many others I see Citybus in Mount Batten sometime in the year.
• Tavistock routes expanded, Torpoint possibly contracted.
• Buses: More new double deckers, probably E400s later in the year.
• More double deckers from Go Ahead London, possibly Wright bodied WVL class buses later in the year.
• As well as the Scanias already coming I think we could see a few other single deckers joining the fleet from within the group.
• The N reg batch of Dennis Darts will be withdrawn, along with a start on the R reg batch.
• Citycoach: One or two secondhand from within the group.

Still here, but not seeing the year out?

First Devon & Cornwall

• First will still be around in Plymouth at the end of the year. Probably treading water with a few route changes along the way and rejigs to combat more expansion from Citybus.
• First Cornwall will be the next to get a Somerset style makeover with a similar non-corporate livery.
• No new buses for Plymouth. Possibly more Tridents transferred in to see off the remaining Olympians.
• First Devon will see a few more buses in the standard new First Group livery. Possibly PLYMOUTH branding in to replace DEVON?

Target Travel and Jacketts 

• Target will continue to contract loosing one or two routes under tender. Probably focus more on their coach work.
• Jacketts will gain more routes in Plymouth and South Devon. They will get their destinations working!

Western Greyhound

• I hope that WG will still be around as an independent operator by the end of 2014. Faced with First who clearly want to make a go of it in Cornwall, if not Devon and a county council who no longer want to pay for it there will be more cutbacks. If anyone does make an offer then I think its more likely to be Stagecoach than Go Ahead.
• Not much of a prediction as its already started, fleet replacement of the last Varios will step up. Quite a fleet of Darts and Tridents over the coming year.
• Plymouth routes remaining pretty much the same.

Stagecoach

• I think there will be slightly more of a presence in Plymouth by Stagecoach this coming year. Not a major move into Plymouth itself though. Possibly the Dartmouth route 93 being taken over from First leaving them to concentrate in Plymouth

Others

• Railway new routes – more talk, no action. Airport – nothing.
• First will retain the Great Western Franchise
• Real time display – no change.
• Bretonside – more talk and no action. Any action will be to develop the site rather than any attempt to replace the bus station.
• Sherford Corridor – There will be plenty of talk about exciting new plans along this corridor. Councillors will speak of trams, monorails, trolley buses, guided bus ways and all sorts of exotic things. We will end up with a few extra bus lanes and maybe one or two stretches of bus-only roads.
• Park & Ride: The council will continue to complain and nothing much will happen. Maybe new fleet names / low level branding on existing buses to help market the services.

No real change on P&R?

Plymothian Transit

Not so much a prediction, more of a hope than anything else. I will strive to post 4 – 5 times a week over the year but there are many things which can get in the way. A few of you will know that my son is having difficulties at the moment (I wont go into them here!) which has lead to a reduction in trips out. Hopefully things will settle later this year once he makes it into secondary school. He is top priority over anything I do for Plymothian Transit!

That said, it will continue and there will be other side projects along the way. Plymothian Bus Services is currently the main project which will  continue to be built up through the year.

The other thing I hope to expand upon is the interaction that the blog is getting these days. There are a lot more comments being left by a lot more people which is brilliant. The recent survey was really useful for me, and there will be a few others over the coming year, possibly shorter and more to the point than the last one.

As always feel free to leave your comments – am I really off the wall on some of these?

So how did I do?

It is a lot later than usual but I do try to look forward to what we can expect to see happen in the new year. The first part though is to look back a year and see how well my crystal ball worked last year. (usually not very well!)

Plymouth Citybus

• The swoops livery will reign supreme and will become the dominant livery in the fleet by the end of the year. Dare I suggest there may be one or two variations by the end of the year too?

If I am scoring myself I think this is half a point. There are plenty of buses in the new livery but its certainly not dominant yet. As for the variations well maybe not swoops but the new Flash liveries certainly count.

• New buses: We will be seeing new buses for Citybus this year. Even better than that we will be seeing new double deckers for Citybus for the first time for years! This is not really a prediction as it has been confirmed that new DDs are on their way, we just dont know for sure what they will be yet. Being Go Ahead it will be either Volvo / Wright or ADL Enviro 400s. Its not yet known if this is in place of the 10 Volvo / Wright single deckers which were on order for this year. My prediction is that it is!

Yep I was right – plenty of new DDs for Citybus and they were in place of the previously expected Volvo/ Wright single decker's.

• More double deckers to join the fleet – as well as the new ones there are to be another 8 “nearly new” double deckers joining the fleet. No idea as to what these will be or indeed where they will be coming from.

Yep – plenty of extra double deckers joined the fleet, although quite a few have yet to enter service. The phrase “nearly new” was pushing it a bit though!

• Route branding. I dont think that there will be any major route branding scheme as such but I can see more buses receiving promotional lettering for their routes during the coming year. I am not aware of anything planned at the moment but the new boss is ex Stagecoach Devon who were pretty keen on self promotion on their buses.

Whoops! I couldnt be more wrong on this one. The Red and Blue Flash buses have brought Citybus well and truly into the route branding fraternity.

• Buses out: I know this has been a feature of my predictions for a few years now but surely the Student Link Volvos have to go at some stage soon. Their high capacity is saving them at the moment but these buses are well past their best and not in keeping with the image that Citybus are trying to project. Its clearly not worth spending money repainting them so I am sure they will go this year. As much as I like the the older Volvos as an enthusiast, its getting embarrassing to see them in normal service. (A bit like the good old VRTs with Western National – loved them but many of them were in shocking condition at the end!).

Yep – the Student Link fleet have now finally gone.

• Routes: We will probably continue to see the network evolve over the coming year as the company looks to build rather than cutback. More cross city routes, which I guess will be marketed as such in a much clearer way rather than just joined in the city centre. If the company can get the buses I can see more out of town routes springing up. The Ivybridge service will continue, possibly expanding  as First cut back their Ivybridge routes?

I think I did well on this one too. Cross City was very much the theme within Plymouth and they have indeed been properly joined in a couple of cases. They did get the buses and they have expanded out of Plymouth. Ivybridge have continued as before, no expansion yet as First are still holding on there.

• Citycoach – there will be continued investment with one or two new (or nearly new) coaches joining the fleet to replace older coaches.

No there wasnt!

 

First:

• This is more difficult. 6 months ago I would have confidently predicted that First would sell up and move out of Plymouth. I am still convinced that they would indeed sell if the opportunity arose but I am less than convinced that there is a buyer out there that would want to take on Go Ahead. I dont think that Stagecoach will move in. It is clear that First would have liked to have made more disposals across the group by now than they had managed so far. The knock on effect of the North Devon decision still rumbles on? I am duty bound to make a prediction here so … I think that First will remain in Plymouth.

I was right on this one. First did actually hit their disposal target with the sale of their London operations. They are still here and seemingly wanting to hang around.

• Having said that it wont be a big priority within the Southern region so any incoming buses will be transfers from within the group. I predict that the older K reg Olympians will go during the year, but a mixture of more Tridents and possibly newer Olympians will arrive.

I think I get half a point for predictions no new buses at least. We still have K reg Olympians around, just. Olympians seem to come and go from within the Westcountry area. No extra Tridents either with quite a few buses leaving for Somerset and elsewhere.

• Repaints: We will see the new First livery being rolled out slowly across the fleet. I still think we will see the Torpoint Tridents repainted this year – but will probably receive the new group livery rather than anything specific to Torpoint. I think we will finally see some form of local fleetname, probably First Devon rather than Plymouth. I would like to see more branding added to the Park & Ride fleet but I predict that they will just retain SHUTTLE names. I hope I am wrong!

I am going to be generous and give myself a point here as the local branding was DEVON initially at least. The Torpoint fleet was repainted and look quite smart in their TORPOINT branding. The SHUTTLE name did disappear as I hoped (but didn't predict) but there is no longer any proper Park & Ride branding which is a big disappointment

©Richard Smith

• Routes. The 88 will be cut back, but they wont pull out of Ivybridge completely. We may see more action on the Tavistock services with maybe a greater push to promote the service in face of competition with Jacketts? I don't see any major changes to Plymouth services although there may be a few reductions in frequency on some routes.

This is an interesting one! The 88 was cut back and First are still hanging on in Ivybridge and Tavistock services are being promoted more heavily with proper TAVISTOCK branding – but that's nothing to do wtih Jacketts who did not last very long at all. There were a few changes in Plymouth though along with quite a few reductions as I expected. I did not predict the new routes in competition with Citybus.

Target etc

• I don't see much changing to be honest. The routes will see changes as the council dictates but overall the amount of work for Target will remain pretty much as it is now. Fleet wise I see more Darts arriving and maybe some Solos leaving? The purple livery will disappear in favour of white and green.

Half a point I think. Target have lost a bit of work with a few routes going elsewhere under tender. Darts are in and a few Solos seem to have left. I think the purple still just about hangs on, but some of them are in white /green livery.

• Jacketts will start to see the new 85 service gain customers and will up the frequency to every hour fairly soon. That's when First will react!

Couldnt be more wrong! It was a brave effort but they very quickly realised it was not going to work. Points to them for trying though!

Western Greyhound

• I can see a stronger year for them this year after the difficulties with Cornwall County Council cutbacks. There may well be more cutbacks in Cornwall but some routes will be improved. Plymouth may not see many changes as routes continue pretty much the same.

Sadly wrong on this. No one could have foreseen the awful fire which has meant that WG certainly did not have a stronger year. Plymouth routes were pretty much left the same.

• Vehicle wise I am pretty sure we will see more investment in the fleet this year as the Mercedes Vario replacement restarts after a gap. I dont think that it will be just Solos. There have been suggestions that a new livery is on the cards too!

Once again we have the fire to blame for this one. Most of the vehicles joining the fleet were to replace destroyed buses rather than proper Vario replacement. The livery change was subtle but it does look smart

Others

(I almost hesitate to say these as they are pretty much the same as last year!)

• Railway – more of the same. Fares up. lots of talk, not a lot of action. Talk about a new route bypassing Dawlish – it wont happen. More talk about reopening the Tavistock line – maybe – but not for years. 

Yes

• Great Western. The franchise system will get going again during the year and a new franchise will be awarded during the year but wont actually start this year? I still think that First Group will retain it though.

Wrong!

• Plymouth Airport: Lots of talk and arguments about the future but it wont reopen. The city council are key the the debate but I dont think they really have the vision or expectation that the airport could reopen. Sad.

Yes

• Real Time Displays. I does indeed seem that we will finally see a new real time bus tracking system introduced in Plymouth which should see a much more reliable real time timetable display available at most bus stops. All buses in Plymouth should get the system and therefore be tracked properly. How many bus stops will actually get the new displays remains to be seen, but it should result in much better live tracking on mobile phone apps. Improvements are on the way, I just hope that this time they do match expectations and promises!

Better systems are in place so the bus companies can track their buses better but passengers dont see any of that. On the stops I use at Derriford Hospital on bus stop has just displayed “Refer to timetables” for ages.

Plymothian Transit

• It should be fairly easy to get to more events and take more photos this year as I did so little of this in 2012. I do now carry a camera with me most days so that should help once the days start to draw out. The simple aim for 2013 is to get 4 or 5 postings a week. I’d rather post better less often than go for daily posts when there is nothing to say! The blog / family balance is very different this year than it has been! I am seeing more comments than ever before and getting more info / photos/ suggestions than previously which is brilliant so I hope that this continues through 2013. I also hope to include more historical posts this year.

Wrong on several counts. I managed a lot less photos last year and no trips out at all, not even managing Kingsbridge much to my disappointment. Thankfully many of you have been really great at sending in your photos and allowing me to use photos you have taken elsewhere. I am just about keeping up with 4 – 5 postings a week, but there have not been many historical posts as time has been limited. The big rise in the number of comments left has continued which has been great.

Part two will be my predictions for 2014.  I hesitate to promise them on any set day this week, but it will be this week!

Looking forward…

Well what a year its been so far!

As we approach Christmas its time to put Plymothian Transit to one side for a few days so I can concentrate on having a good time with my family. Putting PT together is great fun but at the same time hard work. It takes a lot of time and effort but is so rewarding when it goes right that I still enjoy it as much as I always have done. I see from the small counter I have on the blog that my visit count has recently passed the 500000 mark so I must be doing something right! However, it is also nice to take a break!

Whatever side of the First / Go Ahead camp you are on, I am sure you will all agree it has been a very interesting year in Plymouth and that the interest will continue into the New year. One tradition that I have maintained for several years now is the usual New Year predictions where I look back at what I thought was going to happen and see how it matches up with what did happen. Usually not very much! I then also look ahead to the next year and make a few new predictions.Well this year its going to be the same but different!

This year I want to open it up a bit and find out what you think will happen in 2014, on a few questions at least. I have created an online questionnaire which I invite you to complete where you can answer a few big questions as well as make more general predictions for 2014. I will then use these when I post my own predictions. The form which is below should take just a few minutes of your time with a maximum of 10 questions. There are one or two questions which are compulsory but feel free to skip any of the others if you want to.

As an incentive, if you need it, one person who completes the questionnaire will win a £20 Amazon Gift Voucher which will be emailed when I produce my 2014 post. In order to be entered for this draw you will need to provide a name and email address – but if you want to remain anonymous then YOU DO NOT HAVE TO PROVIDE THIS INFORMATION. Your contribution will still be very valuable. Just make sure at the end you click the SUBMIT button!

I will not use your name / email address for any other reason other than to send you the voucher if you win it. If you do win, I will ask if you mind being identified as the winner or wish to remain anonymous. A full copy of the rules can be found here if you want it.

I hope that the form will appear in all internet browsers but it has only been tested in Google Chrome. If you are still using Internet Explorer (why?) then it might not display properly If this is the case try this link instead

Of course the comments box will still be open on PT so feel free to add anything over the Christmas period – they will be added most days so you can keep the discussions going even if the proper posts will stop a while. Other than that I would like to wish all readers a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

Graham Richardson

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Plymothian Transit Predicts…

so, what does 2013 hold transport wise for Plymouth? Despite my well documented lack of success in guessing what the future holds its now time to have another stab…

Plymouth Citybus

• The swoops livery will reign supreme and will become the dominant livery in the fleet by the end of the year. Dare I suggest there may be one or two variations by the end of the year too?
• New buses: We will be seeing new buses for Citybus this year. Even better than that we will be seeing new double deckers for Citybus for the first time for years! This is not really a prediction as it has been confirmed that new DDs are on their way, we just dont know for sure what they will be yet. Being Go Ahead it will be either Volvo / Wright or ADL Enviro 400s. Its not yet known if this is in place of the 10 Volvo / Wright single deckers which were on order for this year. My prediction is that it is!
• More double deckers to join the fleet – as well as the new ones there are to be another 8 “nearly new” double deckers joining the fleet. No idea as to what these will be or indeed where they will be coming from.
• Route branding. I dont think that there will be any major route branding scheme as such but I can see more buses receiving promotional lettering for their routes during the coming year. I am not aware of anything planned at the moment but the new boss is ex Stagecoach Devon who were pretty keen on self promotion on their buses.

will we see more like this in 2013?

• Buses out: I know this has been a feature of my predictions for a few years now but surely the Student Link Volvos have to go at some stage soon. Their high capacity is saving them at the moment but these buses are well past their best and not in keeping with the image that Citybus are trying to project. Its clearly not worth spending money repainting them so I am sure they will go this year. As much as I like the the older Volvos as an enthusiast, its getting embarrassing to see them in normal service. (A bit like the good old VRTs with Western National – loved them but many of them were in shocking condition at the end!).
• Routes: We will probably continue to see the network evolve over the coming year as the company looks to build rather than cutback. More cross city routes, which I guess will be marketed as such in a much clearer way rather than just joined in the city centre. If the company can get the buses I can see more out of town routes springing up. The Ivybridge service will continue, possibly expanding  as First cut back their Ivybridge routes?
• Citycoach – there will be continued investment with one or two new (or nearly new) coaches joining the fleet to replace older coaches.

First

• This is more difficult. 6 months ago I would have confidently predicted that First would sell up and move out of Plymouth. I am still convinced that they would indeed sell if the opportunity arose but I am less than convinced that there is a buyer out there that would want to take on Go Ahead. I dont think that Stagecoach will move in. It is clear that First would have liked to have made more disposals across the group by now than they had managed so far. The knock on effect of the North Devon decision still rumbles on? I am duty bound to make a prediction here so … I think that First will remain in Plymouth.
• Having said that it wont be a big priority within the Southern region so any incoming buses will be transfers from within the group. I predict that the older K reg Olympians will go during the year, but a mixture of more Tridents and possibly newer Olympians will arrive.
• Repaints: We will see the new First livery being rolled out slowly across the fleet. I still think we will see the Torpoint Tridents repainted this year – but will probably receive the new group livery rather than anything specific to Torpoint. I think we will finally see some form of local fleetname, probably First Devon rather than Plymouth. I would like to see more branding added to the Park & Ride fleet but I predict that they will just retain SHUTTLE names. I hope I am wrong!

• Routes. The 88 will be cut back, but they wont pull out of Ivybridge completely. We may see more action on the Tavistock services with maybe a greater push to promote the service in face of competition with Jacketts? I don't see any major changes to Plymouth services although there may be a few reductions in frequency on some routes.

Target etc

• I don't see much changing to be honest. The routes will see changes as the council dictates but overall the amount of work for Target will remain pretty much as it is now. Fleet wise I see more Darts arriving and maybe some Solos leaving? The purple livery will disappear in favour of white and green.
• Jacketts will start to see the new 85 service gain customers and will up the frequency to every hour fairly soon. That's when First will react!

Western Greyhound:

• I can see a stronger year for them this year after the difficulties with Cornwall County Council cutbacks. There may well be more cutbacks in Cornwall but some routes will be improved. Plymouth may not see many changes as routes continue pretty much the same.
• Vehicle wise I am pretty sure we will see more investment in the fleet this year as the Mercedes Vario replacement restarts after a gap. I dont think that it will be just Solos. There have been suggestions that a new livery is on the cards too!

Others

(I almost hesitate to say these as they are pretty much the same as last year!)

• Railway – more of the same. Fares up. lots of talk, not a lot of action. Talk about a new route bypassing Dawlish – it wont happen. More talk about reopening the Tavistock line – maybe – but not for years. 
• Great Western. The franchise system will get going again during the year and a new franchise will be awarded during the year but wont actually start this year? I still think that First Group will retain it though.
• Plymouth Airport: Lots of talk and arguments about the future but it wont reopen. The city council are key the the debate but I dont think they really have the vision or expectation that the airport could reopen. Sad.
• Real Time Displays. I does indeed seem that we will finally see a new real time bus tracking system introduced in Plymouth which should see a much more reliable real time timetable display available at most bus stops. All buses in Plymouth should get the system and therefore be tracked properly. How many bus stops will actually get the new displays remains to be seen, but it should result in much better live tracking on mobile phone apps. Improvements are on the way, I just hope that this time they do match expectations and promises!

Plymothian Transit

• It should be fairly easy to get to more events and take more photos this year as I did so little of this in 2012. I do now carry a camera with me most days so that should help once the days start to draw out. The simple aim for 2013 is to get 4 or 5 postings a week. I’d rather post better less often than go for daily posts when there is nothing to say! The blog / family balance is very different this year than it has been! I am seeing more comments than ever before and getting more info / photos/ suggestions than previously which is brilliant so I hope that this continues through 2013. I also hope to include more historical posts this year.

Well thats my predictions for 2013. Knowing you all as I do I just know that many of you will disagree with much of what I have written so feel free to add your comments! Is there anything I have missed? What do you predict for 2013? Will you do better than me? (quite likely!)

 

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Sorry - I cant add the usual links to other blogs ate as usual as for some reason at this moment in time I cant access my Google Reader account. There are plenty sat there waiting to be shared so hopefully I will regain access tomorrow and post them then!

2012 predicted v reality

Its a bit of a tradition on Plymothian Transit to look ahead to the new year and make predictions as to what we can expect to see. 2013 is no exception and this will come in the next day or two. The other part of this tradition is my looking back at the predictions I made last year and seeing how well (or not!) I did! As I type these words I have not even looked back to see what they were so I have no idea how well I did.

So lets now go back to January 2012:

Plymouth Citybus

1. The new livery will continue to be rolled out across the fleet, at a faster rate than we have seen so far.

Well how to score this one? The new livery is indeed rolling out at a faster rate than we have seen for a few years but its a different livery to the one I was talking about! The two tone red livery didnt last long at all and we now see the red with white swoop livery taking over in Plymouth. 1 point I think!

2. New buses for Citybus. OK so I am cheating here a bit as we already know that we are getting ten new Volvo / Wright single deckers in the Spring. These will be launched with quite a fanfare (I hope) and will make quite an impact on Plymouth. I am guessing that they will be numbered 101 onwards to start a new series and maybe they will even do ‘an Oxford’ and have select ‘PCB’ registrations. Well maybe not that last one!

OK so this was cheating to a point but I was right about the fleet numbers! I was joking about the Oxford style registrations – this is Plymouth – we dont do that here! 1 point.

3. The Citycoach fleet will all be turned out in the new livery, although the fleet will be slightly smaller with older coaches leaving.

Well I am giving myself a point for this one as although not all coaches are in the new livery, all the coaches that are going to be repainted have been! There has been a slight improvement with the Plymouth Citycoach name coming back into use over the non specfic Citycoach name.

4. I would also expect to see a few more ex London Volvo double deckers join the fleet to see off the remaining Volvo Citybuses which wont make it into the new school year in September.

WRONG! I could labour a point and state that Volvo 429 entered service in 2012 so there was a very slight increase (it was a trainer in 2011) but the main point is that the expected DDs didn't materialise in 2012 and the old Volvo Student Link fleet are amazingly still with us!

 

5. There may well be another bit of a shake up on some routes with some areas getting a better service but there will be some areas seeing less buses. School services could well be further cut back seeing off at least some of the Volvo Citybuses without replacement.

Mmmm, There was quite a big shake up which didnt end up quite the big bang that was expected. It certainly wasnt a cut back in any form and school services have pretty much survived. 0.5 points!

6. Any such cuts, no matter how small will be blamed on the council privatisation of Citybus. Any fare rises will also be blamed on this.

We are now finally seeing less references to the privatisation in the local press but read any Citybus news item in This Is Plymouth and just read the comments! 1 point

First

7. There will be significant cutbacks on many out of town routes as much down to the Cornwall and Devon County Councils as anything. The city routes will also further contract mainly through reduced frequencies. I can see the 15 for example ending up as every half an hour.

There have been a few cuts but nothing like the scale I expected to see. First have been very quiet this last year. The 15 did see a reduction to every half an hour but only on a temporary basis over the Summer holidays so I cant really give myself more that half a pint for this.

8. Torpoint Tridents will be repainted into a new livery, although there may be fewer of them.

WRONG! Nothing more to say!

9. There will be a new livery rolled out in Devon & Cornwall as part of First Groups much heralded local branding. It will be fairly underwhelming. No Ray Stenning here!

1 point! There is a new livery and many would say its underwhelming! Many areas do indeed have much greater local branding but this has yet to hit Plymouth with the very few repaints still running with just plain “First” fleetnames. I actually like the new livery I just wish they would get a move on and finish it off properly. Even the new Park & Ride fleet retain their SHUTTLE fleetnames from their Olympic duties!

10. Older Volvo Olympians will bow out but newer Olympians will arrive to replace them. Maybe a few more ex London Tridents will appear in and around Plymouth too. Otherwise not much happening as the fleet contracts.

How wrong can I be! Now new Tridents. Most of the Volvo Olympians are still around and have been joined by more Leyland Olympians of the same age!

 

Other operators

11. Target Travel could well see some of their supported services cut back by the City Council but they will also pick up more school work in the summer.

No real change at Target with no major cutbacks by the council this last year. Citybus kept much of their school work which would have be expected to end up with Target. 0 points

12. which could lead to more double deckers in the fleet.

No it didnt!

13. We will see less Western Greyhound in Plymouth as the full impact of the cuts hit Cornwall hard. I do wonder if the new Cornish network after the cuts will be able to sustain both First and Western Greyhound. It is possible that they could come to some sort of agreement with First withdrawing from Cornwall. I dont think it will happen this year though. (This is more likely if First Group do not retail the rail franchise)

Wrong! Western Greyhound have seen service reductions as a result of County Council (lack of) funding but these have not really impacted on operations in Plymouth. The last non-prediction still stands as a non prediction!

Rail etc

14. Business as usual. More overcrowding and more talk about re opening closed lines. Nothing actually happening. The Great Western franchise will probably stay with First Group. No idea why I think this though!

1 point – nothing has changed. I still think the franchise will stay with First but it be while before franchising gets back on track after all the issues last year

15. There will be a lot of discussion about re opening of Plymouth Airport. It wont happen.

1 Point!

Plymothian Transit.

16. I will be more organised and make more trips out and about the City and take more photographs. I know I make this every year but you never know…

err – nope! Probably wrong on both counts. Less trips out and about and less photos – mainly due to the wet weather!

Final Score 8 out of 16!

I will make my 2013 predictions later in the week. I end with a reminder of some of the comments that were left on the original post.

• Personally I am beginning to think First might sell their Devon and Cornwall area services in next few years..although I am sure they would hang around more if they keep their rail contract..which I think they will !!!
• I think we can expect to see a new uniform for the PCB drivers this year too.
• I think their (Citybus) days in Saltash are numbered!!!
• Do you think Citybus will retain their 5/5A Plymstock routes?
• Service 25 – I think it will probably be a permanent summertime only service like it is on a Sunday
• Personally I think the 43a will be withdrawn (saltash) in the next 12 months and there will be a drasitic reduction in Plymstock routes meaning they are not really competing with First here!! Also I cant see how most evening services are viable especially after 8.30ish ???
• Rumour has it - and I stress rumour that an announcement might be made shortly about the long standing scheme to reopen the railway line from Bere Alston to Tavistock thereby restoring the link to Plymouth

So I am not the only one who is no good a making predictions!

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More

• Predictions for 2011 in 2010 Plymothian Transit January 2012
• Predictions for 2012 Plymothian Transit January 2012

Plymothian Transit Recommends

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two thousand and twelve

Part of me hesitates to try and make predictions for the new year as like with most economic forecasts being made at the moment it is almost bound to be fairly depressing. It is in fact because the economic outlook is so poor that the predictions below are on the gloomy side.

Plymouth Citybus

1. The new livery will continue to be rolled out across the fleet, at a faster rate than we have seen so far.

2. New buses for Citybus. OK so I am cheating here a bit as we already know that we are getting ten new Volvo / Wright single deckers in the Spring. These will be launched with quite a fanfare (I hope) and will make quite an impact on Plymouth. I am guessing that they will be numbered 101 onwards to start a new series and maybe they will even do ‘an Oxford’ and have select ‘PCB’ registrations. Well maybe not that last one!

3. The Citycoach fleet will all be turned out in the new livery, although the fleet will be slightly smaller with older coaches leaving.

4. I would also expect to see a few more ex London Volvo double deckers join the fleet to see off the remaining Volvo Citybuses which wont make it into the new school year in September.

 

5. There may well be another bit of a shake up on some routes with some areas getting a better service but there will be some areas seeing less buses. School services could well be further cut back seeing off at least some of the Volvo Citybuses without replacement.

6. Any such cuts, no matter how small will be blamed on the council privatisation of Citybus. Any fare rises will also be blamed on this.

First

7. There will be significant cutbacks on many out of town routes as much down to the Cornwall and Devon County Councils as anything. The city routes will also further contract mainly through reduced frequencies. I can see the 15 for example ending up as every half an hour.

8. Torpoint Tridents will be repainted into a new livery, although there may be fewer of them.

 

9. There will be a new livery rolled out in Devon & Cornwall as part of First Groups much heralded local branding. It will be fairly underwhelming. No Ray Stenning here!

10. Older Volvo Olympians will bow out but newer Olympians will arrive to replace them. Maybe a few more ex London Tridents will appear in and around Plymouth too. Otherwise not much happening as the fleet contracts.

Other operators

11. Target Travel could well see some of their supported services cut back by the City Council but they will also pick up more school work in the summer.

12. which could lead to more double deckers in the fleet.

13. We will see less Western Greyhound in Plymouth as the full impact of the cuts hit Cornwall hard. I do wonder if the new Cornish network after the cuts will be able to sustain both First and Western Greyhound. It is possible that they could come to some sort of agreement with First withdrawing from Cornwall. I dont think it will happen this year though. (This is more likely if First Group do not retail the rail franchise)

Rail etc

14. Business as usual. More overcrowding and more talk about re opening closed lines. Nothing actually happening. The Great Western franchise will probably stay with First Group. No idea why I think this though!

15. There will be a lot of discussion about re opening of Plymouth Airport. It wont happen.

Plymothian Transit.

16. I will be more organised and make more trips out and about the City and take more photographs. I know I make this every year but you never know…

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Related Links

• Predictions for 2010 Plymothian Transit January 2010
• Predictions for 2011 Plymothian Transit January 2011

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Recommended Links

• We begin with a Bank Holiday Sheffield "bustermind" question. What links Sheffield with the Howrah to Chennai Railway? (It's in India.) Public Transport Experience
• 2011 in 300 words Omnibuses
• Today we are taking a special look back at the early days of Norfolk Green with a photo special, thanks to David Bell who has been scanning his archive of slides into digital format for providing all of the photos in this post. Andys Bus Blog

Looking both ways

Back in January I gave my predictions for 2010. Lets see how I did!

Plymouth Citybus

1. We will almost certainly see a new look for Plymouth Citybus.
WRONG! There are hints of what is to come with the new logo appearing on the web site and the Citybus Shop but that is all so far. Citybus are currently doing a lot of extra refurbishment work for other Go-Ahead companies which is no doubt helping Citybus finances but means less time to spend working on a new livery at the moment.
2. I am sure it wont be long before we start seeing some new buses joining the fleet.
WRONG! GA have clearly concentrated on getting the company leaner and fitter before they start to spend money on new buses.
3. we may well see a few second-hand buses arrive from Go-Ahead fleets to help see off the remaining step entrance Darts and Mercedes bread vans.
RIGHT! OK so we didn't get very many (4 Solos and 3 Darts) but its a start!
4. If and when there are major route changes planned expect to see a big effort by the company explaining the changes and highlighting the benefits.
ERRR... Well I was right about the timing but I am not sure that there was a big push to promote benefits as this was really a pruning of the network to create the leaner fitter Citybus that GA needed to get in place. They did emphasise changes in Plympton as being better but the public didnt seem convinced although the company have since noted that passenger numbers are up by 9% (although see Omnibuses take on this figure)

First

5. I dont think we will see any new Ugo routes springing up next year.
RIGHT! in fact quite the opposite!
6. I am sure they will want to give the current routes time to pick up custom so I don't see any major changes to their network for a while.
WRONG! The Ugo bus network has been cut back dramatically during the year.
7. I would not be surprised to see changes to the Tavistock routes
RIGHT! A brand new look for the bus fleet is smart but does not quite hide the fact that the buses themselves are past their best. The timetable seems odd to say the least and many passengers seem unhappy at the moment.

Other operators

8. Target will probably continue to pick up extra work from the council as it continues to cut back on route subsidies.
SO-SO! At one stage Target actually looked to be pulling out of most of its contact work although they then picked up most routes back again. The year end position seems to be slightly less work that the start of the year but not by much.
9. Expect to see more Solos seeing off some of the older Mercedes.
WRONG! the big surprise was a second-hand step entrance Dart!
10. Western Greyhound will continue to grow, and possibly increase their presence on routes coming into the City.
WRONG - In Plymouth at least. The 576 seems to be doing well with larger buses often appearing in Plymouth but no major changes to operations into Plymouth.

Odds and ends

11. There will be lots of talk about extra rail links to and from Plymouth, including the Tavistock line but not much will actually happen.

RIGHT!
12. Plymouth City Council will continue to cut back on route subsidies.
RIGHT!
13. the Real Time system will all but be forgotten along with Plymgo
RIGHT? A matter of opinion I guess but I haven't seen any progress this year. Plymgo is still there.
14. The free travel scheme for pensioners will continue to be a big story as local authorities struggle to afford the payments which the bus companies already say are insufficient to cover the costs. This story may well grow during the coming general election
RIGHT! It certainly was an issue during the election, although not in the way I expected as all parties seemed to pledge continued support for the scheme, or at least were at pains to deny it was under threat.

Plymothian Transit

15. I can predict more of my own photographs again as I will be purchasing a new camera within the next week or so.
RIGHT! Decent camera at last - just a shame that the new PC wasnt so successful.
16. I also hope to get out and about a bit more in Plymouth to cover the history of transport in the City better than I have in 2009.
WRONG! Certainly not as much as I hoped anyway.
17. Health issues in 2009 saw me restricted in my travels for a large portion of the year, with three months off work and staying indoors. I certainly wont want to see a repeat of these in 2010!
RIGHT! My health has been a lot better in 2010 with just 3 days off in the whole year. Just need to loose a lot of weight now!

So lets look at 2011

Plymouth Citybus

1. New look for Plymouth Citybus. I am pretty sure this will happen in 2011!
2. More secondhand buses for Citybus. Unless there is a major change of plans then this year will see quite an influx of buses. A batch of Dual Door Dennis Darts are coming from Go-Ahead London shortly and there are strong rumours of more low floor double deckers coming to see off the remaining Volvo Citybus fleet. There is still the chance that the fleet will gain some Mercedes Citaro 'bendy buses' too (but see prediction 3 below!)and the Citycoach fleet may also see a few internal transfers from elsewhere.
3. 2011 will see the end of step entrance Darts and the Mercedes 709 bread vans and the Volvo Citybus double deckers.
4. The Mercedes Citaro bendy buses will NOT end up running in Plymouth. As far as I know nothing has been decided yet so it could well happen but I somehow think it unlikely. I would actually like to see a small fleet of these but I see Royal Parade as being a major issue when it comes to operating a fleet of these in Plymouth.
5. I think any route changes in 2011 will generally be small improvements to existing routes rather than any major cutting back. I can see the 26 being cut back a bit to something more sustainable as competition with First all but peters out but I expect to see Citybus remain in Plymstock.

First

6. Sadly I can only see more cutbacks for First over the next twelve months. I am not convinced that the 12 will see the year out.
7. The Ugobus brand will all but disappear.
8. Tavistock routes will continue to change over the year while they try to improve the service. The Park and Ride routes will be run commercially by First (has this already started?) which means that First call the shots rather than the council. Expect reduced frequencies and other minor cutbacks and maybe fares increases. It would be nice to see the PR2 buses in the same Park and Ride livery, or possibly a brand new livery for the routes?
9. No new buses for First in Plymouth but we will see more low floor double deckers from London replace older Olympian double deckers.

Others

10. Target will continue to run the routes that the other operators dont want, but with the council almost certainly cutting back on the routes it pays for they will see some reduction in service during the year. Taxibuses will disappear completely.

Odds and ends

11. There will be lots of talk about extra rail links to and from Plymouth, including the Tavistock line but not much will actually happen. You can pretty much guarantee this each year!
12. Plymouth City Council will continue to cut back on route subsidies.
13. the Real Time system will all but be forgotten along with Plymgo
14. Pensioner free travel will cause major problems over the coming year as it appears bus operators will be expected to bear the brunt of cutbacks in funding. Industry experts are predicting rural routes coming under increased pressure as a result of this and other grant changes. I still see the Government making a few changes to the scheme over the coming year as it tries to reign in costs.

Plymothian Transit

15. Plenty of photographs with the new camera! I do intend to get out and about in Plymouth and will be more organised and plan trips ahead to make the most of them.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

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Related Links

• Plymothian Transit Predicts 2010. Plymothian Transit
• That little statistic. Omnibuses

Elsewhere on the net

• Happy New Year for 2011 from Omnibuses and the Big Five. Off beat style. Omnibuses
• Wilmslow Road bids farewell to African Friends. Manchester Transport
• Lodekka 651EBD and New Year resolutions. Busworks Blog
• Now lets try and sum up the year a bit. PTOTPA
• Buckfast Abbey at Sunset Musings in Monochrome
• Who was William Huskisson MP? A Transport of Delight

Plymothian Transit Predicts 2010

So we have had our quick look back at 2009 in the last two blog posts so lets have a quick look at what we can expect to see in 2010:
There are really two big questions we will see answered in some ways over the next twelve months

What will Go-Ahead do with Plymouth Citybus?

We will almost certainly see a new look for Plymouth Citybus. The new MD has already stated that the company will remain as 'Plymouth Citybus' but I expect to see a nice new livery, almost certainly retaining red as the main colour. Go-Ahead do some great liveries so hopes are high!
I am sure it wont be long before we start seeing some new buses joining the fleet. Go-Ahead have favoured Scania for many of the south coast fleets recently so I wouldn't be surprised to see some come to Plymouth. Being part of a larger group also opens up possibilities for transfers of buses between fleets so we may well see a few second-hand buses arrive from Go-Ahead fleets to help see off the remaining step entrance Darts and Mercedes bread vans. We already have a nice fleet of ex Go-Ahead double deckers in Plymouth, although this is pure coincidence as they were arranged before the company was sold. Some more double deckers would be nice - but is that hoping for too much?
Routes: To be honest I am not expecting too many changes to the route network for the first half of the year at least. If and when there are major changes planned expect to see a big effort by the company explaining the changes and highlighting the benefits.

Where will First go with Ugo?

I dont think we will see any new Ugo routes springing up next year. I am sure they will want to give the current routes time to pick up custom so I don't see any major changes to their network for a while. I would not be surprised to see changes to the Tavistock routes as these do seem to struggle to keep to anything like a timetable.

©AecRegent. Will the bus wars continue?

Other operators

Target will probably continue to pick up extra work from the council as it continues to cut back on route subsidies. Expect to see more Solos seeing off some of the older Mercedes. Western Greyhound will continue to grow, and possibly increase their presence on routes coming into the City.

Other subjects

There will be lots of talk about extra rail links to and from Plymouth, including the Tavistock line but not much will actually happen. Plymouth City Council will continue to cut back on route subsidies, and the Real Time system will all but be forgotten along with Plymgo. I hope I am wrong on both of these...
The free travel scheme for pensioners will continue to be a big story as local authorities struggle to afford the payments which the bus companies already say are insufficient to cover the costs. This story may well grow during the coming general election...

Plymothian Transit

I hope it will be business as usual for 2010! I can predict more of my own photographs again as I will be purchasing a new camera within the next week or so, once I have done my homework! I also hope to get out and about a bit more in Plymouth to cover the history of transport in the City better than I have in 2009. Health issues in 2009 saw me restricted in my travels for a large portion of the year, with three months off work and staying indoors. I certainly wont want to see a repeat of these in 2010!
Well, that’s my predictions for 2010. Feel free to comment on my suggestions - or add any of your own in the comments to this post.